Expert political judgment : (Record no. 77197)

MARC details
000 -LEADER
fixed length control field 02660nam a22002778a 4500
001 - CONTROL NUMBER
control field 0000068721
003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER
control field 0001
008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field 160311r20052005nju b 001 0 eng
015 ## - NATIONAL BIBLIOGRAPHY NUMBER
National bibliography number GBA660687
Source bnb
020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER
International Standard Book Number 9780691123028 (cased) :
International Standard Book Number 0691123020 (cased) :
International Standard Book Number 9780691128719 (paperback) :
International Standard Book Number 0691128715 (paperback) :
040 ## - CATALOGING SOURCE
Original cataloging agency StDuBDS
Language of cataloging eng
Transcribing agency StDuBDS
082 04 - DEWEY DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER
Classification number 320.019
Edition number 22
084 ## - OTHER CLASSIFICATION NUMBER
Classification number 320.019
Item number TET-E
100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Tetlock, Philip E.
245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT
Title Expert political judgment :
Medium [Book] :
Remainder of title how good is it? how can we know? /
Statement of responsibility, etc. Philip E. Tetlock.
260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC.
Place of publication, distribution, etc. Woodstock :
Name of publisher, distributor, etc. Princeton University Press,
Date of publication, distribution, etc. c2005.
300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Extent xvi, 321 pages. ;
Dimensions 23 cm.
520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc. The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. .
521 ## - TARGET AUDIENCE NOTE
Target audience note All.
650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element Political psychology.
Topical term or geographic name entry element Ideology.
852 ## - LOCATION
Piece designation 53704
-- 2849.27
Classification part 320.019 TET-E
-- Eagle Information Marketing
Sublocation or collection Ground Floor
Former shelving location Books
Copy number 1
Piece physical condition 2-Good
Location JZL-CUI
Holdings
Date last seen Total checkouts Full call number Shelving location Price effective from Koha item type Lost status Damaged status Not for loan Withdrawn status Home library Barcode Current library Date acquired
09/12/2023   320.019 TET-E Ground Floor 09/12/2023 Books         Junaid Zaidi Library, COMSATS University Islamabad 53704 Junaid Zaidi Library, COMSATS University Islamabad 09/12/2023